BTC is currently trading around $67,700 and ETH around $2,400. Notable gainers in the last 24 hours are DOGE, ENA, and SUI. The global crypto market cap is $2.37T, down 1.3% over the last day. DeFi Total Value Locked is ~$87b and BTC dominance is around 60%.
Equity markets and crypto prices are flat ahead of tomorrow’s highly-anticipated US election. While Polymarket gives Donald Trump, who is generally seen as the more pro-crypto candidate, a 56% chance of winning, FiveThirtyEight’s election model gives him a 53% chance of winning, and polls have been mixed, leaving plenty of room for either candidate to win and making contested swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, and Georgia particularly important. We may know the results as early as tomorrow evening, or it could take days if the race is particularly close. And though all eyes are on the Presidential election, Senate and House races will also be particularly impactful for the path of crypto in the US, as the openness of Congress is a key determinant for passing meaningful legislation. It will likely take significant time to truly see where policy positions land and assess priorities, though regardless of who wins, the election will remove the significant uncertainty that has weighed on markets for some time.
Outside of the election, investors will watch Thursday’s Federal Reserve meeting, where Fed Funds futures place 98% odds on a 25 bp cut and 2% odds on a larger 50 bps cut. In addition, European retail sales on Wednesday, the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, and speeches by various central bank officials throughout the week will also be closely monitored.
Notable news includes: Pakistan may legalize crypto, per local new sources; Singapore’s MAS announced plans to support the commercialization of asset tokenization; Huawei incorporated China’s digital yuan into its operating system to enhance accessibility for 1b smartphone users; the crypto-backed PAC Fairshake reported raising $78m for 2026 US midterm elections; Coinbase FOIA requests revealed that the FDIC told banks to refrain from providing crypto services in over 20 cases; Russia capped private crypto mining electricity usage; Deutsche Telekom announced a forthcoming Bitcoin mining pilot using surplus renewable energy; Citi and Fidelity unveiled a proposal for an onchain fund with real-time FX swaps; digital asset investment products attracted $2.2b of inflows last week, per CoinShares; the pension fund for the state of Michigan revealed that it invested in the spot Ethereum ETFs; South Korea’s new crypto regulator will begin discussions this week regarding potentially approving spot Bitcoin ETFs; crypto fundraising platform Legion tapped Bluprynt to foster MiCA-compliant ICOs in the EU; and, USDC issuer Circle is reportedly expanding into Hong Kong.
Sign up to conveniently receive GSR crypto content in your inbox.
Author:
Brian Rudick, Head of Research | Twitter, Telegram, LinkedIn
Carlos Guzman, Research Analyst | Twitter, Telegram, LinkedIn
Toe Bautista, Research Analyst | Twitter, Telegram, LinkedIn
This material is provided by GSR (the “Firm”) solely for informational purposes, is intended only for sophisticated, institutional investors and does not constitute an offer or commitment, a solicitation of an offer or commitment, or any advice or recommendation, to enter into or conclude any transaction (whether on the terms shown or otherwise), or to provide investment services in any state or country where such an offer or solicitation or provision would be illegal. The Firm is not and does not act as an advisor or fiduciary in providing this material. GSR is not authorised or regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. The protections provided by the UK regulatory system will not be available to you. Specifically, information provided herein is intended for institutional persons only and is not suitable for retail persons in the United Kingdom, and no solicitation or recommendation is being made to you in regards to any products or services.
This material is not a research report, and not subject to any of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to research reports prepared pursuant to FINRA or CFTC research rules. This material is not independent of the Firm’s proprietary interests, which may conflict with the interests of any counterparty of the Firm. The Firm trades instruments discussed in this material for its own account, may trade contrary to the views expressed in this material, and may have positions in other related instruments.
Information contained herein is based on sources considered to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. Any opinions or estimates expressed herein reflect a judgment made by the author(s) as of the date of publication, and are subject to change without notice. Trading and investing in digital assets involves significant risks including price volatility and illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. The Firm is not liable whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this material. Copyright of this material belongs to GSR. Neither this material nor any copy thereof may be taken, reproduced or redistributed, directly or indirectly, without prior written permission of GSR.
